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# Biophysical Group | ||
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## Q1: What is extreme wildfire? | ||
Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) can be characterized by several key elements: | ||
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- **Out of Distribution Fire Characteristics**: These characteristics are specific to a particular ecosystem and represent deviations from typical fire behavior. They are predominantly driven by out of distribution fuel characteristics. | ||
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- **Negative Effects**: | ||
- **Ecological Effects**: The event results in detrimental impacts on the ecosystem. | ||
- **Social Effects**: The event causes significant negative impacts on human communities. | ||
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### Key Considerations | ||
- **Control**: Is our inability to control the fire a threshold for defining an EWE? | ||
- **Social Impacts**: What if the fire characteristics are all within distribution, but the fire has significant social impacts? | ||
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## Obstacles to Characterizing an Event as Extreme Wildfire | ||
1. **Data Limitations**: Lack of historical data for comparative analysis. | ||
2. **Subjectivity**: Differences in how individuals or communities perceive and define "extreme." | ||
3. **Ecosystem Variability**: Variations in ecosystem resilience and response to fire. | ||
4. **Scale of Impact**: Difficulty in assessing the scale and scope of social versus ecological impacts. | ||
5. **Disaster vs. EWE**: Understanding how EWEs differ from disasters, which may have a more defined threshold of impact or community disruption. | ||
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## Q2: Key Literature in the Domain of Extreme Wildfires | ||
- [List relevant studies, articles, and publications that address extreme wildfires, their impacts, and definitions in your specific domain.] | ||
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## Q3: Tools/Data Sources for Monitoring Extreme Events | ||
- **Satellite Imagery**: Provides real-time monitoring of wildfire spread and intensity. | ||
- **Remote Sensing Data**: Utilized for assessing vegetation and fuel loads. | ||
- **Climate Data**: Helps in understanding fire weather conditions and trends. | ||
- **Local Fire Records**: Historical data for assessing fire behavior and impacts. | ||
- **Ecological Models**: Tools for predicting the potential ecological impacts of wildfires. | ||
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# Modeling Group | ||
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## Q1: What is extreme wildfire? | ||
### Key Elements in Defining an Extreme Event | ||
- **Statistical Thresholds**: Events categorized as extreme may be defined as occurring 2 standard deviations (2SD) outside of the statistical distribution of historical fires. | ||
- **Metrics**: Consideration of which metrics to use—rate of spread, fire size, etc. | ||
- **Data Limitations**: In models like LANDIS, capturing metrics defining extreme wildfire events (EWEs) is challenging. | ||
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### Obstacles to Characterizing an Event as Extreme Wildfire | ||
- **Scaling Challenges**: | ||
- How do we achieve the resolution necessary to gather the required metrics? | ||
- Significant data limitations exist in modeling. | ||
- **Temporal Element**: | ||
- Some fires create intense conditions for only a short duration. | ||
- **Definitions**: | ||
- Multiple definitions could exist: | ||
- **Ecological** | ||
- **Fire Behavior** | ||
- **Social** | ||
- **Landscape Scale Metrics**: Is there a landscape scale metric that might be overlooked? | ||
- **Consequences vs. Behavior**: | ||
- Not linking the consequences with fire behavior complicates the definition. | ||
- **Data Accessibility**: | ||
- After an event, quantifying what is considered extreme based on available data (e.g., spotting data). | ||
- Simpler statistical approaches may be more accessible. | ||
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### Diversity of Definitions | ||
- Is a singular definition necessary, or can we accommodate a diversity of definitions in our review? | ||
- **Difference from Disaster**: | ||
- Extreme wildfires are not synonymous with disasters. Disasters involve broader social impacts and consequences. | ||
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## Q2: Key Literature on Extreme Wildfires | ||
- Balch, J.K., Iglesias, V., Braswell, A.E., Rossi, M.W., Joseph, M.B., Mahood, A.L., Shrum, T.R., White, C.T., Scholl, V.M., McGuire, B., Karban, C., Buckland, M., Travis, W.R., 2020. Social‐Environmental Extremes: Rethinking Extraordinary Events as Outcomes of Interacting Biophysical and Social Systems. Earth’s Future 8, e2019EF001319. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001319 | ||
- Balik, J.A., Coop, J.D., Krawchuk, M.A., Naficy, C.E., Parisien, M.-A., Parks, S.A., Stevens-Rumann, C.S., Whitman, E., 2024. Biogeographic patterns of daily wildfire spread and extremes across North America. Front. For. Glob. Change 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1355361 | ||
- Bowman, D.M.J.S., Kolden, C.A., Abatzoglou, J.T., Johnston, F.H., Van Der Werf, G.R., Flannigan, M., 2020. Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene. Nat Rev Earth Environ 1, 500–515. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0085-3 | ||
- Bowman, D.M.J.S., Williamson, G.J., Abatzoglou, J.T., Kolden, C.A., Cochrane, M.A., Smith, A.M.S., 2017. Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events. Nature Ecology & Evolution 1, 0058. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0058 | ||
- Coop, J.D., Parks, S.A., Stevens-Rumann, C.S., Ritter, S.M., Hoffman, C.M., 2022. Extreme fire spread events and area burned under recent and future climate in the western USA. Global Ecology and Biogeography 31, 1949–1959. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13496 | ||
- Cunningham, C.X., Williamson, G.J., Bowman, D.M.J.S., 2024. Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth. Nat Ecol Evol 8, 1420–1425. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02452-2 | ||
- Duane, A., Castellnou, M., Brotons, L., 2021. Towards a comprehensive look at global drivers of novel extreme wildfire events. Climatic Change 165, 43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03066-4 | ||
- Fromm, M., Servranckx, R., Stocks, B.J., Peterson, D.A., 2022. Understanding the critical elements of the pyrocumulonimbus storm sparked by high-intensity wildland fire. Commun Earth Environ 3, 243. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00566-8 | ||
- Jones, G.M., Ayars, J., Parks, S.A., Chmura, H.E., Cushman, S.A., Sanderlin, J.S., 2022. Pyrodiversity in a Warming World: Research Challenges and Opportunities. Curr Landscape Ecol Rep 7, 49–67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40823-022-00075-6 | ||
- Jones, G.M., Gutiérrez, R., Tempel, D.J., Whitmore, S.A., Berigan, W.J., Peery, M.Z., 2016. Megafires: an emerging threat to old-forest species. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 14, 300–306. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1298 | ||
- Linley, G.D., Jolly, C.J., Doherty, T.S., Geary, W.L., Armenteras, D., Belcher, C.M., Bliege Bird, R., Duane, A., Fletcher, M.-S., Giorgis, M.A., Haslem, A., Jones, G.M., Kelly, L.T., Lee, C.K.F., Nolan, R.H., Parr, C.L., Pausas, J.G., Price, J.N., Regos, A., Ritchie, E.G., Ruffault, J., Williamson, G.J., Wu, Q., Nimmo, D.G., 2022. What do you mean, ‘megafire’? Global Ecology and Biogeography 31, 1906–1922. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13499 | ||
- Nowell, B., Steelman, T., 2019. Beyond ICS: How Should We Govern Complex Disasters in the United States? Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 16. https://doi.org/10.1515/jhsem-2018-0067 | ||
- Paveglio, T.B., Edgeley, C.M., Stasiewicz, A.M., 2018. Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations. Journal of Environmental Management 213, 425–439. | ||
- Pereira, M.G., Parente, J., Amraoui, M., Oliveira, A., Fernandes, P.M., 2020. The role of weather and climate conditions on extreme wildfires, in: Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters. Elsevier, pp. 55–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815721-3.00003-5 | ||
- Ribeiro, L.M., Viegas, D.X., Almeida, M., McGee, T.K., Pereira, M.G., Parente, J., Xanthopoulos, G., Leone, V., Delogu, G.M., Hardin, H., 2020. Extreme wildfires and disasters around the world, in: Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters. Elsevier, pp. 31–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815721-3.00002-3 | ||
- Tedim, F., Leone, V., Amraoui, M., Bouillon, C., Coughlan, M.R., Delogu, G.M., Fernandes, P.M., Ferreira, C., McCaffrey, S., McGee, T.K., 2018. Defining extreme wildfire events: Difficulties, challenges, and impacts. Fire 1, 9. | ||
- Tedim, F., Leone, V., Coughlan, M., Bouillon, C., Xanthopoulos, G., Royé, D., Correia, F.J.M., Ferreira, C., 2020. Extreme wildfire events, in: Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters. Elsevier, pp. 3–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815721-3.00001-1 | ||
- Wang, X., Swystun, T., Oliver, J., Flannigan, M.D., 2021. One extreme fire weather event determines the extent and frequency of wildland fires. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 114031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f64 | ||
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## Q3: Tools/Data Sources for Monitoring Extreme Events | ||
- **Fireline Intensity and Rate of Spread Data**: Essential for characterizing fire behavior. | ||
- **Fire Atlas - MODIS**: Provides global data on fire boundaries. | ||
- **Available Data**: What additional data sources can we leverage to define disasters and better understand extreme wildfire events? | ||
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## Additional Notes from Modeling Breakout Group | ||
- **Definition**: Should be quantifiable and applicable globally without being tied to size or social dynamics. Contextualizing "extreme" based on location is critical. | ||
- **Control Dynamics**: Resource limitations influence whether a fire is considered extreme. | ||
- **Key Elements**: There is a struggle with the AND aspect of definitions, especially if characteristics are intertwined. | ||
- **Generalizability of Tedim Values**: Concerns about applying these values universally. | ||
- **Data Gaps**: There are significant gaps in available data to meet all definitional parameters. | ||
- **Social Element Modeling**: The social component may not be easily generalizable, leading to practical challenges in defining EWEs. | ||
- **Monitoring Tools**: Questions arise about the socio-economic data available and how to integrate social elements effectively. | ||
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# Social Group | ||
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## Q1: Defining Extreme Wildfire | ||
### What is Extreme Wildfire? | ||
- **Context Matters**: Definitions can vary based on the end user, context, and intended audience. | ||
- **Historical Context**: Grappling with concepts like "historically unprecedented" or "outside of historical range" is essential. | ||
- **Calibration of "Extreme"**: | ||
- Is it extreme for the local unit, ecology, or management team? | ||
- Resources and communication networks need to be considered. | ||
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### Key Elements in Defining an Extreme Event | ||
- **Integration of Social Elements**: | ||
- Modeling should incorporate social factors to better distinguish between disasters and extreme wildfire events. | ||
- Consider social elements that are difficult to quantify (e.g., community values). | ||
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### Obstacles to Characterizing an Event as Extreme Wildfire | ||
- **Definitional Trade-offs**: Boundary objects can complicate definitions—how do we reconcile different frameworks? | ||
- **Separation of Consequences**: Understanding what modeling aims to achieve is crucial. | ||
- **Model Limitations**: | ||
- Data resolution and trustworthiness influence predictions. | ||
- Social vulnerability indices often fail to account for adaptive capacities. | ||
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### Disaster vs. Extreme Wildfire Event | ||
- **Distinctions**: | ||
- Extreme wildfire events should encompass broader ecological and social consequences. | ||
- The threshold for disaster involves societal response overload and significant negative impacts. | ||
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## Q2: Key Literature on Extreme Wildfires | ||
- [Abatzoglou et al. (2021)](https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092520) - Compound extremes driving wildfires. | ||
- [Balch et al. (2020)](https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001319) - Social-environmental extremes. | ||
- [Cunningham et al. (2024)](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02452-2) - Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires. | ||
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## Q3: Tools/Data Sources for Monitoring Extreme Events | ||
- **Fireline Intensity and Rate of Spread Data**: Essential for characterizing fire behavior. | ||
- **Fire Atlas - MODIS**: Provides global data on fire boundaries and behaviors. | ||
- **Community-Based Asset Mapping**: Important for understanding local values at risk. | ||
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## Summary of Discussion Points | ||
- **Evaluation of "Extreme"**: Requires a reference point based on ecosystem, institutional systems, and community contexts. | ||
- **Historical Precedence**: Events should be assessed for their novelty and distribution in historical records. | ||
- **Consequence-Focused Definitions**: Understanding extreme wildfire events through the lens of their consequences is vital. | ||
- **Modeling as a Social-Technical System**: Models must be contextualized and designed with audience needs in mind. | ||
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### Recommendations | ||
- **Reverse Engineering Models**: Start with probable consequences and intended uses to design effective models. | ||
- **Temporal Aspects**: Different decision-making processes require distinct temporal resolutions in modeling. | ||
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### Key Takeaways | ||
- **Extreme is Contextual**: Definitions of extreme events vary significantly based on local conditions and societal impacts. | ||
- **Distinguishing Extreme Events from Behavior**: Extreme fire behavior does not always equate to an extreme wildfire event. | ||
- **Capacity of Control**: Understanding local histories and institutional capacities is crucial for accurate assessments. | ||
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