From 7a8140fc13a4246f054d7e51650de697f6267b1a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Wesley Rancher <153556204+wesranch@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2024 11:16:28 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] added breakout group notes --- docs/notes/Monday Breakout Group Notes.md | 153 ++++++++++++++++++++ docs/notes/Tuesday Breakout Group Notes.md | 159 +++++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 312 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/notes/Monday Breakout Group Notes.md create mode 100644 docs/notes/Tuesday Breakout Group Notes.md diff --git a/docs/notes/Monday Breakout Group Notes.md b/docs/notes/Monday Breakout Group Notes.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f267e6 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/notes/Monday Breakout Group Notes.md @@ -0,0 +1,153 @@ +# Biophysical Group + +## Q1: What is extreme wildfire? +Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) can be characterized by several key elements: + +- **Out of Distribution Fire Characteristics**: These characteristics are specific to a particular ecosystem and represent deviations from typical fire behavior. They are predominantly driven by out of distribution fuel characteristics. + +- **Negative Effects**: + - **Ecological Effects**: The event results in detrimental impacts on the ecosystem. + - **Social Effects**: The event causes significant negative impacts on human communities. + +### Key Considerations +- **Control**: Is our inability to control the fire a threshold for defining an EWE? +- **Social Impacts**: What if the fire characteristics are all within distribution, but the fire has significant social impacts? + +## Obstacles to Characterizing an Event as Extreme Wildfire +1. **Data Limitations**: Lack of historical data for comparative analysis. +2. **Subjectivity**: Differences in how individuals or communities perceive and define "extreme." +3. **Ecosystem Variability**: Variations in ecosystem resilience and response to fire. +4. **Scale of Impact**: Difficulty in assessing the scale and scope of social versus ecological impacts. +5. **Disaster vs. EWE**: Understanding how EWEs differ from disasters, which may have a more defined threshold of impact or community disruption. + +## Q2: Key Literature in the Domain of Extreme Wildfires +- [List relevant studies, articles, and publications that address extreme wildfires, their impacts, and definitions in your specific domain.] + +## Q3: Tools/Data Sources for Monitoring Extreme Events +- **Satellite Imagery**: Provides real-time monitoring of wildfire spread and intensity. +- **Remote Sensing Data**: Utilized for assessing vegetation and fuel loads. +- **Climate Data**: Helps in understanding fire weather conditions and trends. +- **Local Fire Records**: Historical data for assessing fire behavior and impacts. +- **Ecological Models**: Tools for predicting the potential ecological impacts of wildfires. + + + + +# Modeling Group + +## Q1: What is extreme wildfire? +### Key Elements in Defining an Extreme Event +- **Statistical Thresholds**: Events categorized as extreme may be defined as occurring 2 standard deviations (2SD) outside of the statistical distribution of historical fires. + - **Metrics**: Consideration of which metrics to use—rate of spread, fire size, etc. +- **Data Limitations**: In models like LANDIS, capturing metrics defining extreme wildfire events (EWEs) is challenging. + +### Obstacles to Characterizing an Event as Extreme Wildfire +- **Scaling Challenges**: + - How do we achieve the resolution necessary to gather the required metrics? + - Significant data limitations exist in modeling. +- **Temporal Element**: + - Some fires create intense conditions for only a short duration. +- **Definitions**: + - Multiple definitions could exist: + - **Ecological** + - **Fire Behavior** + - **Social** +- **Landscape Scale Metrics**: Is there a landscape scale metric that might be overlooked? +- **Consequences vs. Behavior**: + - Not linking the consequences with fire behavior complicates the definition. +- **Data Accessibility**: + - After an event, quantifying what is considered extreme based on available data (e.g., spotting data). + - Simpler statistical approaches may be more accessible. + +### Diversity of Definitions +- Is a singular definition necessary, or can we accommodate a diversity of definitions in our review? +- **Difference from Disaster**: + - Extreme wildfires are not synonymous with disasters. Disasters involve broader social impacts and consequences. + +## Q2: Key Literature on Extreme Wildfires + - Balch, J.K., Iglesias, V., Braswell, A.E., Rossi, M.W., Joseph, M.B., Mahood, A.L., Shrum, T.R., White, C.T., Scholl, V.M., McGuire, B., Karban, C., Buckland, M., Travis, W.R., 2020. Social‐Environmental Extremes: Rethinking Extraordinary Events as Outcomes of Interacting Biophysical and Social Systems. Earth’s Future 8, e2019EF001319. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001319 + - Balik, J.A., Coop, J.D., Krawchuk, M.A., Naficy, C.E., Parisien, M.-A., Parks, S.A., Stevens-Rumann, C.S., Whitman, E., 2024. Biogeographic patterns of daily wildfire spread and extremes across North America. Front. For. Glob. Change 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1355361 + - Bowman, D.M.J.S., Kolden, C.A., Abatzoglou, J.T., Johnston, F.H., Van Der Werf, G.R., Flannigan, M., 2020. Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene. Nat Rev Earth Environ 1, 500–515. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0085-3 + - Bowman, D.M.J.S., Williamson, G.J., Abatzoglou, J.T., Kolden, C.A., Cochrane, M.A., Smith, A.M.S., 2017. Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events. Nature Ecology & Evolution 1, 0058. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0058 + - Coop, J.D., Parks, S.A., Stevens-Rumann, C.S., Ritter, S.M., Hoffman, C.M., 2022. Extreme fire spread events and area burned under recent and future climate in the western USA. Global Ecology and Biogeography 31, 1949–1959. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13496 + - Cunningham, C.X., Williamson, G.J., Bowman, D.M.J.S., 2024. Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth. Nat Ecol Evol 8, 1420–1425. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02452-2 + - Duane, A., Castellnou, M., Brotons, L., 2021. Towards a comprehensive look at global drivers of novel extreme wildfire events. Climatic Change 165, 43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03066-4 + - Fromm, M., Servranckx, R., Stocks, B.J., Peterson, D.A., 2022. Understanding the critical elements of the pyrocumulonimbus storm sparked by high-intensity wildland fire. Commun Earth Environ 3, 243. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00566-8 + - Jones, G.M., Ayars, J., Parks, S.A., Chmura, H.E., Cushman, S.A., Sanderlin, J.S., 2022. Pyrodiversity in a Warming World: Research Challenges and Opportunities. Curr Landscape Ecol Rep 7, 49–67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40823-022-00075-6 + - Jones, G.M., Gutiérrez, R., Tempel, D.J., Whitmore, S.A., Berigan, W.J., Peery, M.Z., 2016. Megafires: an emerging threat to old-forest species. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 14, 300–306. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1298 + - Linley, G.D., Jolly, C.J., Doherty, T.S., Geary, W.L., Armenteras, D., Belcher, C.M., Bliege Bird, R., Duane, A., Fletcher, M.-S., Giorgis, M.A., Haslem, A., Jones, G.M., Kelly, L.T., Lee, C.K.F., Nolan, R.H., Parr, C.L., Pausas, J.G., Price, J.N., Regos, A., Ritchie, E.G., Ruffault, J., Williamson, G.J., Wu, Q., Nimmo, D.G., 2022. What do you mean, ‘megafire’? Global Ecology and Biogeography 31, 1906–1922. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13499 + - Nowell, B., Steelman, T., 2019. Beyond ICS: How Should We Govern Complex Disasters in the United States? Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 16. https://doi.org/10.1515/jhsem-2018-0067 + - Paveglio, T.B., Edgeley, C.M., Stasiewicz, A.M., 2018. Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations. Journal of Environmental Management 213, 425–439. + - Pereira, M.G., Parente, J., Amraoui, M., Oliveira, A., Fernandes, P.M., 2020. The role of weather and climate conditions on extreme wildfires, in: Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters. Elsevier, pp. 55–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815721-3.00003-5 + - Ribeiro, L.M., Viegas, D.X., Almeida, M., McGee, T.K., Pereira, M.G., Parente, J., Xanthopoulos, G., Leone, V., Delogu, G.M., Hardin, H., 2020. Extreme wildfires and disasters around the world, in: Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters. Elsevier, pp. 31–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815721-3.00002-3 + - Tedim, F., Leone, V., Amraoui, M., Bouillon, C., Coughlan, M.R., Delogu, G.M., Fernandes, P.M., Ferreira, C., McCaffrey, S., McGee, T.K., 2018. Defining extreme wildfire events: Difficulties, challenges, and impacts. Fire 1, 9. + - Tedim, F., Leone, V., Coughlan, M., Bouillon, C., Xanthopoulos, G., Royé, D., Correia, F.J.M., Ferreira, C., 2020. Extreme wildfire events, in: Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters. Elsevier, pp. 3–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815721-3.00001-1 + - Wang, X., Swystun, T., Oliver, J., Flannigan, M.D., 2021. One extreme fire weather event determines the extent and frequency of wildland fires. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 114031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f64 + +## Q3: Tools/Data Sources for Monitoring Extreme Events +- **Fireline Intensity and Rate of Spread Data**: Essential for characterizing fire behavior. +- **Fire Atlas - MODIS**: Provides global data on fire boundaries. +- **Available Data**: What additional data sources can we leverage to define disasters and better understand extreme wildfire events? + +## Additional Notes from Modeling Breakout Group +- **Definition**: Should be quantifiable and applicable globally without being tied to size or social dynamics. Contextualizing "extreme" based on location is critical. +- **Control Dynamics**: Resource limitations influence whether a fire is considered extreme. +- **Key Elements**: There is a struggle with the AND aspect of definitions, especially if characteristics are intertwined. +- **Generalizability of Tedim Values**: Concerns about applying these values universally. +- **Data Gaps**: There are significant gaps in available data to meet all definitional parameters. +- **Social Element Modeling**: The social component may not be easily generalizable, leading to practical challenges in defining EWEs. +- **Monitoring Tools**: Questions arise about the socio-economic data available and how to integrate social elements effectively. + + +# Social Group + +## Q1: Defining Extreme Wildfire +### What is Extreme Wildfire? +- **Context Matters**: Definitions can vary based on the end user, context, and intended audience. +- **Historical Context**: Grappling with concepts like "historically unprecedented" or "outside of historical range" is essential. +- **Calibration of "Extreme"**: + - Is it extreme for the local unit, ecology, or management team? + - Resources and communication networks need to be considered. + +### Key Elements in Defining an Extreme Event +- **Integration of Social Elements**: + - Modeling should incorporate social factors to better distinguish between disasters and extreme wildfire events. + - Consider social elements that are difficult to quantify (e.g., community values). + +### Obstacles to Characterizing an Event as Extreme Wildfire +- **Definitional Trade-offs**: Boundary objects can complicate definitions—how do we reconcile different frameworks? +- **Separation of Consequences**: Understanding what modeling aims to achieve is crucial. +- **Model Limitations**: + - Data resolution and trustworthiness influence predictions. + - Social vulnerability indices often fail to account for adaptive capacities. + +### Disaster vs. Extreme Wildfire Event +- **Distinctions**: + - Extreme wildfire events should encompass broader ecological and social consequences. + - The threshold for disaster involves societal response overload and significant negative impacts. + +## Q2: Key Literature on Extreme Wildfires +- [Abatzoglou et al. (2021)](https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092520) - Compound extremes driving wildfires. +- [Balch et al. (2020)](https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001319) - Social-environmental extremes. +- [Cunningham et al. (2024)](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02452-2) - Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires. + +## Q3: Tools/Data Sources for Monitoring Extreme Events +- **Fireline Intensity and Rate of Spread Data**: Essential for characterizing fire behavior. +- **Fire Atlas - MODIS**: Provides global data on fire boundaries and behaviors. +- **Community-Based Asset Mapping**: Important for understanding local values at risk. + +## Summary of Discussion Points +- **Evaluation of "Extreme"**: Requires a reference point based on ecosystem, institutional systems, and community contexts. +- **Historical Precedence**: Events should be assessed for their novelty and distribution in historical records. +- **Consequence-Focused Definitions**: Understanding extreme wildfire events through the lens of their consequences is vital. +- **Modeling as a Social-Technical System**: Models must be contextualized and designed with audience needs in mind. + +### Recommendations +- **Reverse Engineering Models**: Start with probable consequences and intended uses to design effective models. +- **Temporal Aspects**: Different decision-making processes require distinct temporal resolutions in modeling. + +### Key Takeaways +- **Extreme is Contextual**: Definitions of extreme events vary significantly based on local conditions and societal impacts. +- **Distinguishing Extreme Events from Behavior**: Extreme fire behavior does not always equate to an extreme wildfire event. +- **Capacity of Control**: Understanding local histories and institutional capacities is crucial for accurate assessments. + diff --git a/docs/notes/Tuesday Breakout Group Notes.md b/docs/notes/Tuesday Breakout Group Notes.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..268f505 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/notes/Tuesday Breakout Group Notes.md @@ -0,0 +1,159 @@ +# Climate Group + +## Data Limitations and Modeling Extreme Events +### Key Points +- **Extreme Events Are Rare**: Addressing data limitations in modeling extreme events is crucial. +- **Model Parameterization**: + - There are sufficient historical events to parameterize models effectively. + - Modeling can generate multiple replicates for better analysis. + +### Challenges with General Circulation Models (GCMs) +- **GCM Limitations**: GCMs struggle to accurately model extremes. +- **Resampling Observations**: + - Use observed data to project future scenarios (e.g., increasing frequency of drought years). + - Focus on enhancing downscaled wind speed and humidity data from GCMs. + +### Collaboration Opportunities +- **Engagement with Climate Modelers**: Partner with experts to improve model outputs. +- **Addressing Uncertainty**: Resampling from reliable meteorological data can provide valuable insights. + +### Prospectus Paragraph +- **Focus on Bias Correction**: Investigate bias correction of GCM outputs at various resolutions. +- **Utility for Decision Makers**: Assess how model corrections align with real-world experiences and what new methods are needed. +- **Planning for Extreme Events**: Develop strategies for both common and extreme fire events, acknowledging that some scenarios may seem unrealistic but are possible. + +### Research Team Composition +- Climatologists, fire modelers, social scientists, and stakeholder engagement experts. + +--- + +# Evacuation and Response Group + +## Next Steps +- **Leadership and Collaboration**: + - Amanda will lead the initiative and has a draft to build upon. + - Recommendations for collaboration with traffic flow modelers. + +## Upcoming Meetings +- **Poll for Scheduling**: Amanda will set up a scheduling poll by September 20 for a meeting by November 10. + +## Relevant Publications +- **General Gaps**: + - Zehra & Wong (2024) on wildfire evacuations. +- **Building on Existing Research**: + - Singh et al. (2021) on self-evacuation archetypes. +- **Variables of Interest**: + - Wong’s dissertation on evacuation challenges. + - Li et al. (2015) on household-level evacuation warnings. + - Wood (2023) on mitigating cascading hazards. + +## Problem Statement +- **Evacuation Challenges**: + - Early evacuation is often hindered by damaged communication systems, extreme fire behavior, and visibility issues. + - Traditional vehicular evacuation models fail to consider community dynamics and alternative evacuation strategies. + +### Proposed Research Objectives +- **Retrospective Analysis**: Examine evacuation dynamics using cell phone data to identify successful and problematic evacuations. +- **Understanding Human Behavior**: Gather social science data to refine evacuation decision-making models. + +--- + +# Forecasting Fires Group + +## Best Predictors of Fire Impacts +- **Anomalous Behavior**: Investigate if more anomalous fire behavior leads to greater community impacts. +- **Community Characteristics**: Explore how social values and characteristics affect fire risk. + +## Spatial Distribution of Community Values +- **Focus on High-Risk Areas**: Understand which fire attributes pose the greatest risk to specific communities. + +--- + +# Fuel Types Group + +## Integration of Built Environment in Fire Modeling +### Key Points +- **Model Coupling**: + - Combine process models with fine-scale models of the built environment to assess fire spread. +- **Community Resilience**: + - Analyze how different building materials affect wildfire risk. + +### Proposal Concept +- **Joint Modeling Framework**: + - Develop a model that integrates fine-scale building characteristics with wildfire spread models like LANDIS. + - Use recent studies to inform simulations of fire interactions in urban settings. + +## Goals +- **Evaluate Risk**: Identify how many homes need fireproofing and assess the influence of materials on wildfire risk in urban sprawl scenarios. + +--- + +### General Notes +- **Consideration of Human Factors**: Address the complexities of evacuation dynamics, such as vehicle usage and community support systems. +- **Ecological Factors**: Incorporate fuel types and fire breaks into modeling frameworks. + +# Scenario Group +**Date**: 9/17/2024 +**Members**: Branda Nowell, Amanda Stasiewicz, Lise, Shelby, Rob, Cole + +## Defining the Scenario +- **Focus**: Understanding what forest managers need for decision-making and planning. +- **Key Components**: + - Stakeholder assessments and community asset mapping. + - Prioritization of fuel treatments in Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs). + - Models should be informed by social scientists and external input. + +## Discussion Objectives +1. **Target for Models**: What should models focus on? +2. **Model Functionality**: What do we need from the models? +3. **Identifying Gaps**: Round Robin discussion on model limitations. + +### Key Themes and Ideas +- **Rob's Insights**: + - **Climate Management**: Address resistance, resilience, and adaptation strategies. + - **End Goals**: Trade-off analysis between societal benefits and negative outcomes. + +- **Modeling Approaches**: + - Historical incident data for high-consequence events. + - Use of GEOMAC for fire spread and forecasting. + - Prepare scenarios for resource allocation and fire management planning. + +- **Lise's Contribution**: Utilize datasets to identify anomalous, high-impact fires for modeling and analysis. + +- **Branda's Vision**: Create an NIFC-focused NASA map that alerts communities when conditions exceed thresholds. + +### Research Proposals +- **Retrospective Analysis**: + - Paper 1: Predicting which fires become anomalous and high-impact. + - Paper 2: Exploring why some fires do not reach these levels. + +### Machine Learning and Preparedness +- **Shelby's Inquiry**: Incorporate machine learning and statistical models. +- **Cole's Concern**: Assess public preparedness and reverse engineering vulnerabilities. + +--- + +# Rx Fire/Suppression Group + +## Objectives and Approach +- **Geospatial Database Construction**: Mapping dozer lines and assessing firebreak impacts on ecosystems. +- **Stakeholder Engagement**: Interviewing burn managers and communities about fuel management tactics. + +### Key Components of the Proposal +- **Social Dynamics**: Investigate the relationship between social vulnerability and the location of fuel management activities. +- **Cost and Impact Assessment**: Quantify the costs and ecological impacts of fire suppression activities. +- **Modeling Active Fuel Breaks**: Understanding the dynamics of fire breaks over time. + +## Steps to Implement +1. **Data Collection**: Acquire necessary spatial datasets (Rx, suppression, smoke). +2. **Engagement with Managers**: Understand motivations behind fire management decisions. + +## Proposed Papers for Reference +1. [Modeling suppression difficulty: current and future applications](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0451-7) +2. [Analysis of social and ecological factors in fire management](https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/items/a71b3c90-2257-46af-8ca8-80273bdeabf7) +3. [Efficacy of fire management strategies](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s42408-024-00315-6) + +### Considerations +- **Smoke Dynamics**: Incorporate effects of smoke in fire management strategies. +- **Modeling Multiple Scales**: Assess ecological and societal impacts at various scales. +