Violation in Monte Carlo model

[Lejoon]

The Monte Carlo model implicitly assumes that the multivariate normal distribution that is built from the individual assumptions has independent factors and not with a copula. This is easily seen to be violated in practice and is a material risk. For example if costs are in the bear case we expect other "negative" assumptions to have correlation with costs going up. For this reason the bear case is very optimistically valued.

[simacastel]

Just curious, but what would the cumulative correlations be for the bear case on cost that is missing? The bear case capex is already one of the key drivers in the simulation.